The global offshore wind industry is facing a critical impasse as the relentless pursuit of larger turbines disrupts its supply chain, according to consultancy Roland Berger.
Offshore wind has been designated a cornerstone of Europe's energy transition, with plans to boost annual capacity additions from 7GW to 20GW by 2030, targeting a total of 120GW. However, Roland Berger's latest report warns that these ambitions are threatened by systemic challenges in the supply chain.
Governments' competitive tenders for wind farms are driving project developers to select larger turbines to reduce costs. While earlier moves to scale up turbine size delivered cost savings by requiring fewer units for the same energy output, further growth in turbine dimensions now offers diminishing returns.
The consultancy claims that the so-called “rat race” for ever-larger turbines is sowing uncertainty across the supply chain. Component suppliers, such as those producing gearboxes and foundations, are hesitant to invest in new factories without clarity on future turbine dimensions. Installation contractors face similar dilemmas regarding vessel and crane upgrades, while ports struggle to decide on appropriate quay depths.
These uncertainties, according to the report, are delaying wind farm projects and exacerbating price increases caused by supply chain bottlenecks.
Bram Albers, a partner at Roland Berger, urged a reassessment of the industry's trajectory: “The offshore wind industry must triple its capacity. Now is the time to lay the groundwork for a robust, future-proof supply chain, to ensure competitive cost of electricity and continued industrial activity in Europe.”
Industry efforts to establish turbine size standards have stalled, despite proposals such as NedZero's call to cap turbine height. Roland Berger's report advocates for adopting an industry-wide standard to stabilize the supply chain and enable strategic investment.
Senior associate Maarten de Vries highlighted the importance of long-term planning: “To halt the increasingly fruitless rat race towards bigger turbines, we need to set an industry standard for turbine size and develop a roadmap for eventual transition to even larger or smarter turbines.”
Such measures, the consultancy argues, are essential for maintaining Europe's global competitiveness in offshore wind and achieving its energy transition targets within budget and on schedule.
