Wind energy installations in the United States fell 15% in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period last year, but developers are expected to accelerate activity in the second half, according to a new industry report.
The US Wind Energy Monitor, released jointly by research firm Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP), found that just 593 megawatts (MW) were installed in the second quarter — a 60% year-on-year decline. However, total new capacity for the year is projected to reach 7.7 gigawatts (GW), with more than half expected to come online in the fourth quarter.
“We are seeing this uptick in the near term because many projects are shovel-ready or under construction, fully permitted and with a turbine order in place,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. “However, we will face uncertainty later in this decade due to tariff investigations and permitting challenges.”
The report noted that while near-term activity received a 7% boost following Treasury guidance confirming eligibility for clean energy tax credits, new federal investigations into turbine component tariffs could increase costs by up to one-third and delay future project timelines.
“We’re seeing policy whiplash,” Garcia da Fonseca added. “Treasury guidance helps the advanced development pipeline, but tariff investigations and permitting hurdles are creating uncertainty beyond 2027.”
Geographically, western U.S. states are expected to lead wind capacity additions through 2029, accounting for 31% of new installations. The Midwest is projected to surpass Texas in 2027, with more than 1.8GW of new capacity.
Offshore wind is forecast to add 5.9GW of capacity by 2029, with most projects coming online between 2026 and 2027. However, recent federal stop-work orders and ongoing regulatory uncertainty have disrupted development.
“Recent federal stop-work orders and regulatory uncertainty have disrupted the offshore wind sector, weakening already fragile offtake opportunities and exposing the high investment risk in U.S. offshore wind development,” said Garcia da Fonseca. “However, our five-year outlook remains unchanged and 70% of forecasted capacity is already under construction.”
Despite political and regulatory challenges, the report projects an average of 9.1GW in annual wind installations — including onshore, offshore and repowering — through 2029, totalling approximately 46GW over five years.
“Despite political headwinds, wind projects are demonstrating market resilience,” Garcia da Fonseca said. “Wind continues to secure ISAs in 2025 despite anti-wind rhetoric. The technology maintains meaningful market presence even as solar and storage lead interconnection activity, with leadership concentrated in SPP and ERCOT.
