China has reached a milestone in its energy sector, with wind and solar power now surpassing coal in installed capacity for the first time. The National Energy Administration (NEA) reports that renewable energy sources have exceeded coal, marking a significant shift in the country's energy mix.
Rystad Energy projects that by 2026, solar power alone will surpass coal as China's leading energy source, with a forecasted cumulative capacity exceeding 1.38 terawatts, which is 150 gigawatts more than coal.
This shift underscores China's increased commitment to clean energy and a reduction in fossil fuel reliance. Historically, coal had a substantial lead, with around 50 gigawatts of annual installations before 2016. However, recent investments in wind and solar energy have dramatically changed the landscape. Since 2020, annual installations of wind and solar energy have consistently exceeded 100 gigawatts, three to four times greater than coal capacity additions. In the past year, China set a record with 293 gigawatts of new wind and solar installations, driven by large-scale renewable projects.
In contrast, the coal power sector has been in decline. While approximately 40 gigawatts of new coal power were added last year, this figure fell sharply to 8 gigawatts in the first half of 2024. The Chinese government has imposed stricter regulations on new coal projects to meet its carbon reduction targets. These measures include phasing out smaller coal plants, upgrading existing facilities to reduce emissions, and enforcing stricter standards for new projects. As a result, the gap between coal and clean energy capacity additions has widened significantly, with a 16-fold difference in the first half of 2024.
Simeng Deng, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, noted, “We're at a crucial juncture for China and the global energy transition. With strong renewable energy project pipelines, China is poised to move beyond its status as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and energy consumer. Solar energy will play a central role in this transformation, potentially establishing China as a leader in clean energy.”
Wind power, introduced in China in the early 2000s, has experienced substantial growth. By 2011, China had installed 17.6 gigawatts of onshore wind capacity, which grew to 30 gigawatts annually from 2011 to 2019. Offshore wind developments began in 2018, leading to a record 71 gigawatts of new installations in 2020. After a temporary decline, wind capacity rebounded with 75 gigawatts of new additions last year and 25 gigawatts in the first half of this year, with forecasts suggesting an additional 50 gigawatts in the latter half of 2024.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity began to make a significant impact in 2013, with 16 gigawatts installed. Benefitting from cost reductions, annual installations grew to between 30 and 50 gigawatts from 2016 to 2021. In 2022, China added 87 gigawatts of PV capacity, leading to a record 216 gigawatts last year. With 105 gigawatts added in the first half of 2024, total new solar capacity is expected to exceed 230 gigawatts for the year.
As China's clean power capacity expands, it faces challenges such as low utilization rates and intermittency. Upgrading grid infrastructure to improve transmission flexibility and storage capabilities will be crucial. Battery storage will play a key role in maintaining grid stability and ensuring that the increased reliance on clean energy meets the demands of the growing population and national targets.
