The UK Government's ambitious goal to achieve a zero-carbon power system by 2030 is expected to fall significantly short, according to a new analysis from Cornwall Insight. The Benchmark Power Curve forecast indicates that solar, onshore, and offshore wind are on track to provide only 44% of Great Britain's electricity generation by 2030, well below the 67% required for a fully decarbonised system.
Cornwall Insight's findings suggest that to meet the government's targets, the UK would need to add 35GW of onshore wind, 50GW of offshore wind, and 55GW of solar capacity. These figures represent substantial increases beyond current projections, requiring 17GW more onshore wind, 27GW more offshore wind, and 10GW more solar power than currently anticipated.
Tom Edwards, principal modeller at Cornwall Insight, emphasized the scale of the challenge: “Our findings highlight the urgent need for a step change in Great Britain's approach to renewable energy capacity delivery. While the underlying goal to decarbonise the power system is crucial for the country's future, the gap between our current trajectory and the new government's 2030 target is substantial.”
The analysis identifies several significant hurdles, including funding, supply chain issues, grid connections, and port capacity. An additional £48 billion will be required on top of the £18 billion already projected for the current infrastructure buildout to meet the government's goals. Attracting this level of investment will be critical, with increased funding for schemes like Contract for Difference (CfD) potentially drawing more business by offering greater returns.
However, Cornwall Insight notes that international competition for project development and material shortages present ongoing challenges. The analysis also calls for a dramatic increase in storage deployment, especially for longer-duration storage and hydrogen, to support a fully decarbonised power system.
“Without significant intervention, we risk falling far short of the decarbonisation goals,” Edwards added. “Increasing the attractiveness of the CfD scheme for renewables schemes by increasing budgets or Administrative Strike Price caps is likely to draw in more developers. However, this is only one piece of a large and complicated puzzle. International competition for project development coupled with material shortages are challenging issues that often lie beyond a government's control.”
Edwards acknowledged recent government actions, such as lifting the de facto ban on onshore wind, as positive steps. “The swift actions of the new government are encouraging. However, much more needs to be done to turn decarbonisation promises into a reality,” he concluded.
This analysis underscores the significant efforts needed to align the UK's renewable energy capacity with its zero-carbon ambitions by 2030.
