A recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie warns that a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election could imperil an estimated $1 trillion in low-carbon energy investments, potentially leading to a significant surge in carbon emissions by 2050. The study, published on Thursday, underscores the pivotal role of the election in shaping the trajectory of energy investments and emissions reduction efforts.
David Brown, director of Wood Mackenzie's Energy Transition Research, emphasized the critical impact of the election cycle on energy investment, stating, “Investments in low carbon supply need to be made in the near term to realize longer-dated decarbonization targets.” The analysis predicts that under a scenario where Trump reverses key climate policies, including withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, U.S. carbon emissions could escalate, thwarting efforts to achieve net-zero emissions.
The study highlights the contrasting approaches of Trump and his rival, President Joe Biden, towards climate change and clean energy initiatives. While Biden has prioritized climate action and clean energy manufacturing, Trump has signaled intentions to roll back climate policies, including tax credits for electric vehicles and emissions standards for cars and power plants.
Notably, Trump's alignment with oil executives and promises of favorable energy policies have raised concerns about the future trajectory of U.S. energy policy and its implications for carbon emissions. Wood Mackenzie projects a potential reduction of $1 trillion in energy sector investments over the period of 2023-2050 if key policies supporting low-carbon energy are reversed.
The analysis predicts a significant divergence in future outcomes, with net U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions projected to be 1 billion tonnes higher by 2050 under a scenario where Trump prevails. Additionally, the study anticipates a significant decrease in the adoption of electric vehicles, with the total stock forecasted to be 50% lower by 2050 compared to current policies, as automakers prioritize hybrid production over electric cars.
