In a bid to align with climate action targets, the European Union (EU) faces a pressing need to double its grid capacity by 2035, according to the latest findings from the Paris Agreement Compatible (PAC) scenario. The report highlights a significant shortfall in grid infrastructure across EU Member States, posing challenges in meeting the escalating demand for renewable energy generation.
Currently, grid transmission capacity falls short of accommodating the burgeoning demand for renewables, leading to mounting connection queues for new projects and curtailments for surplus electricity.
To address this, the PAC scenario outlines a stark reality: grid transmission capacity across 25 EU Member States (excluding Malta and Cyprus) must surge by 47% by 2030, a staggering 131% by 2035, and an even higher 144% by 2040. This imperative underscores the necessity for rapid and substantial investment in grid modernization and expansion.
Despite the growing momentum behind wind and solar energy, the report indicates that the annual deployment rate for renewables must soar by at least 38% compared to the record year of 2023 when 74GW was added. Achieving this pace would entail installing 100GW of renewable energy capacity annually to fulfill the EU's Paris Agreement objectives.
Joni Karjalainen, an energy transition analyst at CAN Europe, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, “The latest findings from the PAC scenario underscore the urgency needed to modernize and expand the EU's grid and energy infrastructure.”
Moreover, flexibility within the network is deemed crucial to alleviating grid capacity pressures, ensuring seamless matching of demand and supply.
On the consumption front, the PAC scenario forecasts a collective 51% reduction in final energy consumption by EU Member States by 2040. This reduction would not only limit the demand for energy infrastructure but also yield substantial cost and material savings.
To achieve these ambitious goals, the report estimates that annual gross investments of €302 billion in 2030, €400 billion in 2035, and €411 billion in 2040 would be necessary. However, the benefits of accelerated climate action are projected to far outweigh these costs, with direct co-benefits estimated to amount to €1 trillion by 2030 for the EU.
Cosimo Tansini, policy officer for renewables at the European Environmental Bureau, highlighted the importance of inclusive and transparent processes in addressing grid challenges, stating, “Europe has a grids problem. They risk holding the energy transition back if plans aren't upgraded.”
