The United Kingdom's ambitious goal to decarbonize its power system by 2035 appears increasingly challenging, according to a recent analysis conducted by Aurora Energy Research. The modeling undertaken by the group indicates that achieving the target would necessitate a more than four-fold increase in offshore wind capacity, a 35% growth in nuclear capacity, and a staggering 150% rise in pumped hydro storage.
Aurora Energy Research highlighted that such increases are deemed “simply not feasible” under current development and consenting timelines. Factors contributing to this feasibility challenge include uncertainty surrounding market design, the pace of grid expansion, and the early-stage nature of critical technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen.
The research suggests that a more realistic timeline for decarbonizing the UK's power system would be in the early 2040s. However, this still represents an ambitious target, necessitating unprecedented efforts from investors, developers, transmission system operators (TSOs), and policymakers.
Despite the formidable efforts and costs associated with achieving these targets, Aurora emphasized the significant benefits. Decarbonizing the power sector not only aligns with the legal deadline of achieving net-zero emissions across the economy by 2050 but also enhances Britain's energy independence. Furthermore, it shields consumers from potential future spikes in global commodity prices.
Marc Hedin, Head of Research for the UK and Ireland at Aurora, emphasized the importance of realistic planning, stating, “While it's important to promote an ambitious plan, policymakers need to provide a framework that is designed to deliver the target; otherwise, it's wishful thinking. No one invests because of a target.”
Hedin stressed the need for concrete plans aligned with realistic targets, offering a crucial roadmap for developers, lenders, and other stakeholders. This, he suggested, would support an accelerated pace of capital deployment and project development timelines.
As the world refocuses on the energy transition in light of COP28, the findings underscore the imperative for a pragmatic approach to align targets with feasible plans, avoiding potential hindrances to the country's energy transition.
