BloombergNEF (BNEF) anticipates a substantial increase in the commissioning of solar, wind, and energy storage projects in the United States between 2023 and 2030. The latest outlook by the research firm suggests that a total of 619 gigawatts (GW) of clean energy and storage will come online during this period, marking a 19 GW boost from its prior projections.
The research provider acknowledges the presence of formidable challenges in the renewable energy landscape, including permitting hurdles, grid connections, and the higher cost of capital. However, BNEF remains optimistic, pointing to several mitigating factors such as declining equipment costs, rising energy demand, and a robust appetite for new clean power sources.
A noteworthy contributor to this optimism is the extension and expansion of tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). BNEF asserts that these fiscal incentives will help counterbalance the impact of potentially higher interest rates on renewable energy projects.
BNEF's updated forecasts reveal a significant uptick in solar energy capacity, with an additional 12 GW expected to be commissioned from 2023 to 2030. This growth is primarily attributed to the residential solar sector, which is poised to overcome financing obstacles thanks to sustained cost reductions over the long term.
The outlook for onshore wind installations suggests a contraction for the third consecutive year in 2023. However, the analysis projects a resurgence in the latter part of the decade. Meanwhile, the offshore wind sector faces challenges, with high inflation and interest rates leading to the cancellation of approximately 3.2 GW of offtake contracts in the current year. Nevertheless, BNEF predicts that annual wind additions will surpass 11 GW by 2025 and escalate to an impressive 23 GW by 2030.
Energy storage, particularly in states like California and Texas, is experiencing rapid growth, and BNEF forecasts that the installed capacity will reach 132 GW with 460 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030.
While the prospects for clean energy and storage are promising, BNEF also highlights the need for reforms in the US transmission network. To accommodate an estimated 380 GW of new capacity, federal reforms are deemed necessary to streamline permitting processes and alleviate interconnection bottlenecks, potentially fostering a 9% growth in the transmission network.
