In a significant update to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Net Zero Roadmap, the path to restricting global warming to 1.5°C remains viable, thanks to the remarkable expansion of clean energy technologies. However, the report underscores the imperative for heightened ambition and robust international collaboration to attain climate goals.
The 2023 update of the Net Zero Roadmap affirms that reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the global energy sector while capping global warming at 1.5°C is still within reach, but it necessitates rapid momentum across various fronts. This report builds upon the original 2021 publication, which has served as a cornerstone reference for policymakers, industries, the financial sector, and civil society.
The extraordinary growth in solar power capacity and electric vehicle sales since 2021 aligns with the trajectory required to achieve global net-zero emissions by mid-century. These two technologies alone contribute to one-third of the emissions reductions needed by 2030. Furthermore, clean energy innovation has expanded options and reduced technology costs.
Nonetheless, this decade calls for even more ambitious actions. The updated net-zero pathway outlines a global strategy to triple renewable power capacity by 2030, double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements, boost electric vehicle and heat pump sales, and reduce energy sector methane emissions by 75%. These strategies, founded on proven and cost-effective emissions reduction technologies, account for over 80% of the required reductions by the decade's end.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasizes the critical role of global cooperation, stating, “Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires the world to come together quickly. The good news is we know what we need to do – and how to do it. Our 2023 Net Zero Roadmap, based on the latest data and analysis, shows a path forward. But we also have a very clear message: Strong international cooperation is crucial to success. Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand.”
The Net Zero Roadmap not only charts a course to net-zero emissions in the global energy sector by 2050 but also underscores the significance of an equitable transition, considering national circumstances. Advanced economies are anticipated to achieve net zero earlier, affording emerging and developing economies more transition time. The pathway aims to ensure universal access to modern energy forms by 2030 through an annual investment of nearly $45 billion, accounting for slightly over 1% of energy sector investment.
However, maintaining course necessitates most countries elevating their net-zero commitments and mobilizing increased investment, particularly in emerging and developing economies. In this updated pathway, global clean energy spending is projected to surge from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to $4.5 trillion annually by the early 2030s.
The updated scenario hinges on substantial policy-driven expansion of clean energy capacity to slash fossil fuel demand by 25% by 2030, resulting in a 35% decrease in emissions compared to the 2022 peak. By 2050, fossil fuel demand is expected to plummet by 80%, obviating the need for new long-lead-time upstream oil and gas projects, as well as new coal mines or unabated coal plants. Nonetheless, continued investment in select existing oil and gas assets and approved projects remains necessary. Timing the uptick in clean energy investment and the decline in fossil fuel supply investment is critical to prevent price spikes or supply gluts.
Strengthening the resilience and diversity of supply chains for clean energy technologies and critical minerals emerges as a key factor in achieving a net-zero emissions energy sector. The report underscores the importance of keeping supply chains open to meet the rapid development demands of clean energy.
The report further highlights the significance of robust international collaboration in restraining global warming to 1.5°C. It warns that inadequate ambition and implementation by 2030 would entail additional climate risks, rendering the 1.5°C target reliant on costly and unproven carbon removal technologies. In a Delayed Action Case explored in the report, the failure to accelerate clean energy expansion sufficiently by 2030 would necessitate the removal of nearly 5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere annually in the latter half of the century. If carbon removal technologies falter at such a scale, attaining the 1.5°C target would become unattainable.
Dr. Birol underscores the importance of prevention over cure, stating, “Removing carbon from the atmosphere is very costly. We must do everything possible to stop putting it there in the first place.”
The report concludes by highlighting the growing momentum behind global renewable capacity and energy efficiency targets. It emphasizes that the COP28 climate summit in Dubai presents a pivotal opportunity to commit to greater ambition and implementation in the remaining years of this pivotal decade.
