A new study by WindEurope and Hitachi Energy concludes that an energy system dominated by renewables is the lowest-cost pathway for Europe across all scenarios assessed, with alternatives reliant on nuclear power, hydrogen or carbon capture and storage projected to cost significantly more.
The organisations said these alternative pathways add between €487 billion and €860 billion in additional system costs by 2050. Hitachi Energy added that a renewables-based scenario is “€1.6 trillion less expensive than a slow transition scenario in which Europe misses its climate targets.” The study attributes the gap largely to higher residual fuel and carbon costs in the slower transition pathway.
According to the analysis, a rapid build-out of wind and solar would save €331 billion by 2035 compared with a delayed transition. Cumulative savings in the high-renewables scenario are equivalent to Europe’s annual healthcare expenditure and about 9% of EU GDP.
The report highlights the need for substantial electrification in heavy industry but stresses that the renewables-led pathway remains the most economical even with additional investment requirements. It finds that high-renewables systems can maintain stability and deliver sizeable energy security margins, with production exceeding consumption.
Fuel import dependency drops to 22% in 2050 under the renewables scenario, compared with 54% in the slow transition case, the study shows. It also forecasts employment in the European wind sector rising from 440,000 today to 600,000 by 2030.
WindEurope and Hitachi Energy said lower climate ambition carries “no upside,” arguing that delaying renewable deployment increases long-term system costs. They noted that Europe’s shift is already underway, with wind and solar increasing from 0.8% of EU electricity generation in 2000 to 30% today while emissions have fallen by nearly one-third as the economy expanded 45%.
