ABO Energy has lowered its earnings forecast for 2025 after reassessing the value and scheduling of projects under development in response to shifting market conditions, the company said on Monday.
The developer said renewable energy expansion in Germany has accelerated sharply in recent years, supported by federal targets calling for the construction of up to seven wind turbines per day and streamlined approval procedures. But competition for feed-in tariff auctions has intensified. Submissions in the August 2024 tender reached 5.7 gigawatts versus 3.5GW available, leaving many projects without awards, the company said. It added that studies from external analysts in October pointed to a further tightening in the November onshore wind auction.
Management now expects award levels to continue falling. An internal review led to revised valuations of projects under development and a broader portfolio analysis. Some projects have been rescheduled due to lower award probabilities, and valuations were adjusted to reflect what the company described as a “lower market level”.
Even so, ABO Energy said its remaining portfolio “continues to hold substantial value”. However, it does not expect international markets to offset pressures in Germany. The company cited an oversupply of solar capacity in Spain, oversupply of wind in Finland, changes to grid access rules in Greece and legislative shifts affecting infrastructure sales in Hungary.
ABO Energy, which has reported positive earnings for nearly 30 years, said it will not be able to do so in 2025. Its forecast has shifted from a projected surplus of €29–39 million to a net loss of about €95 million. The downgrade is “primarily driven by valuation effects and has only a minor impact on liquidity”, the company said.
The firm began adapting its business model at the end of 2024, though market changes progressed faster than expected. Its project pipeline totals roughly 30GW, including 10GW in Germany, which it said provides a basis for a rapid return to profitability.
Managing director Karsten Schlageter said the company will continue adjusting its operating model. “We will rigorously adapt our cost structures to the significantly changed market conditions at home and abroad and drive this forward with urgency,” he said, adding: “We are confident that we will report a positive result again in the next fiscal year.”
ABO Energy said it remains a reliable partner for customers, investors, landowners, municipalities and employees.
