Ireland’s electricity transmission operator EirGrid has forecast a reduced likelihood of system alerts for the upcoming winter, citing increased generation capacity, interconnector availability, and emergency backup measures.
In its Winter Outlook for 2025/26, covering the period from 3 November to 5 April, EirGrid reported a Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of 1.1 hours—well within Ireland’s annual reliability standard of three hours. This marks a continued decline from 3.6 hours last winter and 51 hours in the 2022/23 season.
“The risk of insufficient generation being available to meet demand this winter is much lower than in recent years and within the standards set by our Department, which is positive,” said Diarmaid Gillespie, Director of System Operations at EirGrid.
EirGrid attributed the improvement to the addition of new power generation sources, the completion of the 500 MW Greenlink Interconnector with Britain, and ongoing measures under the Commission for Regulation of Utilities’ (CRU) Security of Supply Programme.
These measures include 750 MW of retained units at Moneypoint, 649 MW of temporary emergency generation capacity, and the addition of 108 MW of gas-fired peaking plant and 45 MW of battery storage through the Capacity Market.
While the risk of system strain during low wind or reduced interconnector imports remains, EirGrid said the probability of a Red Alert—signalling immediate risk to electricity supply—remains low. Protocols with large energy users also remain in place to ensure continuity of supply for residential and critical services in emergency conditions.
A review of the previous winter found only two system alerts, both linked to weather events rather than generation shortfalls.
Peak demand reached a record 6,024 MW on 8 January 2025, with the median forecast for the upcoming winter at 6,044 MW.
Gillespie added: “Our role at EirGrid is to balance supply and demand every minute of the day from the National Control Centre, while also planning for Ireland’s long-term electricity needs. Our grid infrastructure and the capacity and capability of EirGrid to fulfil its critical role is fundamental to unlocking greater energy independence and security.
