The global shift to cleaner energy is continuing despite recent policy reversals in the United States, according to DNV’s latest Energy Transition Outlook, which forecasts a modest delay to emission reductions but maintains an overall positive trajectory for the global transition.
In its ninth annual report, the Norwegian risk management firm says that renewed US support for fossil fuels and rollbacks in climate policy will delay the country’s emissions cuts by approximately five years. As a result, annual US carbon dioxide emissions are projected to be between 500 million and 1 billion tonnes higher than previously estimated.
However, DNV concluded that the impact of the US slowdown on the global energy transition will be limited, with China and other regions continuing to drive momentum through investment in renewable technologies.
“The global energy transition is not stalling – it is evolving, with momentum shifting to regions that are doubling down on clean technologies,” said Remi Eriksen, group president and chief executive of DNV. “Security has become the dominant driver of energy policy, and as our forecast shows, this is in sum accelerating the shift to renewables.”
China is expected to account for 56% of global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and 60% of new wind capacity in 2025, setting records both for deployment and exports of clean energy technology. DNV projects global solar PV capacity will exceed 3,000 gigawatts this year, with China installing more than double the volume seen in Europe.
While the overall pace of the transition has slowed slightly, the report forecasts that by 2050, the global energy mix will be split 51% fossil fuels to 49% non-fossil, with emissions projected to fall 43% by mid-century. Net zero, however, is not expected until after 2090.
The report also highlights the growing role of energy security in shaping global policy. As countries seek to diversify energy sources, global emissions are forecast to decline by 1–2% per year compared to previous estimates. Europe’s emissions, for instance, are expected to be 9% lower by 2050 due to reduced reliance on fossil fuel imports.
Electricity’s share of total energy demand is forecast to rise from 21% today to 43% by 2060, driven by rapid deployment of renewables and digital infrastructure. DNV also points to emerging challenges, such as the energy demands of artificial intelligence. By 2040, AI alone is expected to consume 3% of global electricity, with total data centre usage reaching 5%.
The outlook warns that the carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C will be exhausted by 2029, with global temperatures reaching 2°C by 2052 if current trends continue.
“In several sectors, technology progress and cost reduction are driving the energy transition forward, but in harder to decarbonise sectors, much more policy help is needed,” Eriksen added. “While geopolitical tensions and national priorities add complexity, the global direction of the energy transition remains clear.
