Global offshore wind capacity is set to grow by 16 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2025, with China contributing around two-thirds of new installations, according to energy research firm Rystad Energy.
The outlook highlights China’s increasing dominance in the offshore wind sector, with the country projected to hold 45% of the world’s cumulative offshore capacity by 2030, Rystad said in its latest market update.
The growth comes as the United States scales back renewable investment, with developers facing economic and policy headwinds that have slowed project timelines and reduced capital flows.
“Unfavourable economic and policy conditions in the US — including stop-work orders, reduced tax incentives and inflationary pressures — have slowed domestic project development and diverted capital flows to Europe and Asia,” Rystad said.
According to the report, US renewable energy investment is down 36% year-on-year in 2025, while European commitments are rising as developers reallocate funding.
Several high-profile projects in the US have faced delays. Stop-work orders were issued earlier this year for Ørsted’s Rhode Island offshore wind development and Equinor’s New York project. Although a federal judge later reversed the order on Ørsted’s Revolution Wind scheme, the company has yet to confirm whether construction will proceed.
“The shift in US policy not only halts or slows progress on offshore wind projects that were previously greenlit but pushes European wind developers away from US investment,” said Alexander Fløtre, senior vice president and head of offshore wind research at Rystad Energy.
Meanwhile, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is expanding its domestic portfolio. Its 1.5GW Hainan CZ7 project has been approved and is expected to become the company’s first utility-scale offshore wind farm by the end of the decade.
The report also highlights China’s critical role in the global wind supply chain. Despite efforts by Western governments to develop alternative manufacturing hubs, around 25% of facilities producing key turbine components for Western OEMs are still located in China.
“Europe’s wind industry is taking notice,” said Andrea Scassola, vice president of supply chain research at Rystad Energy.
“Policymakers are working to reduce reliance on Chinese imports and strengthen domestic manufacturing.”
As investment trends shift, Rystad expects Europe and China to drive the majority of offshore wind development in the near term, while uncertainty continues to weigh on the US market.
