The Netherlands will revise its offshore wind capacity target for 2040, scaling back from its previously announced goal of 50 gigawatts (GW) to a range of 30GW to 40GW. The decision reflects updated projections of electricity demand, cost developments, and slower progress in key enabling technologies such as hydrogen.
In a letter to parliament on Wednesday, Dutch Minister for Climate and Green Growth Sophie Hermans said the move was based on findings from the North Sea Wind Energy Infrastructure Plan (WIN), which assessed the outlook for the country’s offshore wind rollout.
“It does not seem feasible and necessary at the moment to have 50GW of offshore wind … capacity by 2040,” Hermans wrote.
The WIN, which evaluates infrastructure planning from 2033 onward, concluded that a lower capacity range would better align with current trends in electrification, capital expenditure increases, and the delayed development of hydrogen markets.
“A bandwidth of 30GW to 40GW of offshore wind energy is the most realistic,” Hermans stated, adding that a revised roadmap would be presented in a Climate and Energy Memorandum this September. The document will include updated demand forecasts for renewable electricity and hydrogen, as well as a review of onshore renewable energy development.
“This creates a more realistic roll-out path that fits the way in which the energy transition is developing,” she said.
A separate action plan focused on offshore wind in the near term is expected to be published later this year, according to Hermans.
The Dutch wind energy association NedZero expressed concern that the scaled-back target may undermine long-term goals. “This represents a significant step backward in ambition with far-reaching consequences for investment security, energy independence, and achieving national and European climate goals,” the group said in a statement.
The revised projections also raise questions about the feasibility of the previously stated ambition to reach 70GW of offshore wind by 2050.
