As the world becomes increasingly aware of the devastating impact of climate change, efforts to reduce carbon emissions have intensified. One of the most ambitious targets set by governments and organizations worldwide is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. According to the United Nations, over 100 countries have pledged to be carbon neutral by this deadline. Achieving this goal will require significant investments in renewable energy, particularly solar power, as it is one of the most promising sources of clean energy.
A recent study conducted by researchers at the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) sheds light on the potential of solar power to contribute to global decarbonization. The study, published in the journal Solar RRL, explores viable trajectories to supply more than 60 terawatts (TW) of installed solar capacity to meet the goal of global decarbonization by 2050-2060.
The researchers used a model that includes existing technology as well as mature technologies using silicon and cadmium telluride (CdTe). They also studied the effect of disruptive technologies, such as perovskites and tandem technologies, on deployment cost and market opportunity. The study estimates that disruptive technologies offer a $1 to $2 trillion market opportunity and that the potential for cost savings could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars.
See also: Global Installed and Commissioned PV Capacity Surges by Over 25% to 1.2TW in 2022: IEA Report
One of the disruptive technologies identified in the study is cadmium telluride (CdTe)-based PV. This technology is currently used by solar manufacturers First Solar and Toledo Solar, among others, and represents about 16% of the U.S. solar market. Another promising technology is perovskites, which have challenges with long-term durability but offer advantages in manufacturing as they can be printed quickly and relatively inexpensively in a roll-to-roll method. Tandem technologies, which pair different solar technologies, such as perovskite on silicon, are also showing promising results.
While the efficiencies of these technologies are promising, more research and development is needed to manufacture them at the scale required to achieve terawatt capacities. The study estimates that the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV to totally decarbonize global electrical systems using solar in the 2050 to 2060 decade. This is a 60-fold increase in the amount of installed PV worldwide today.
To achieve this target, the study highlights the need for an unprecedented ramp-up of production capacity. However, the authors of the study note that this is achievable under the assumption that investors protect their investments by avoiding stranded production assets. The model demonstrates that a sustainable ramp-up of manufacturing is possible, and that disruptive technologies will play a role in lowering capital costs.
The study also assumes that the lifespan of a PV module will increase considerably, possibly from an average of 30 years in 2020 to 50 years by 2040. This could significantly reduce the need for replacements and maintenance, making solar power a more attractive investment.
Jao van de Lagemaat, director of the Chemistry and Nanoscience Center at the U.S. Department of Energy's NREL, emphasized that there are economically viable trajectories that can get the world to the needed manufacturing capacity to produce the amount of PV needed to completely decarbonize the world's energy economy. He also noted that emerging technologies could potentially lower the cost of this deployment significantly if they get commercialized in time.
