According to new forecasts by Rystad Energy, clean energy sources are expected to supply 73% of Europe's electricity by 2035, with subsea interconnectors from North Africa potentially contributing up to 24 GW of capacity.
Currently, Morocco is the only North African country connected to Europe, via two high-voltage cables linking it to Spain, each with a capacity of 700 MW. Plans are underway for a third cable.
Key projects aimed at enhancing Europe's access to North African renewables include the Xlinks UK-Morocco project, which proposes a 3.6-GW subsea connection between the UK and Morocco, alongside 11.5 GW of renewable capacity and 22.5 GWh of battery storage.
Other proposed initiatives include the GREGY interconnector between Greece and Egypt, and the ELMED-TUNITA project connecting Tunisia to Italy.
Rystad Energy estimates these three major projects could bring around 7.2 GW of interconnector capacity and 23 GW of renewable energy from North Africa to Europe, split between 13.5 GW of solar and 9.5 GW of onshore wind, requiring an investment of over USD 27.5 billion. Together, these interconnectors could supply 55 TWh annually, accounting for about 1.6% of Europe's current electricity generation.
The analysis highlights that North Africa's renewable potential is well-suited to Europe's energy transition, reducing reliance on Russian natural gas. The geographical proximity and complementary renewable generation profiles—Europe's wind power peaks in winter and solar in summer—would help stabilize energy supplies across the region.
However, North Africa's development of solar and wind energy, with over 350 GW in early-stage projects, faces challenges, including supply chain limitations and a reliance on imports. The region also grapples with procurement constraints for high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables, while financing challenges could delay timelines.
