Ireland and Northern Ireland's ambitious goal of generating 80% of their electricity from renewable sources by the end of this decade is now expected to be delayed until at least 2032, according to Cornwall Insight. The latest data from the Single Electricity Market Benchmark Power Curve indicates that by 2030, only 70% of the power grid will be using renewable sources, with the remainder predominantly generated by gas plants.
While the 80% target, set by both Irish and Northern Irish governments, is likely to be missed, significant progress has been made. The Single Electricity Market (SEM) currently boasts the highest contribution of wind generation of any power system globally. Forecasts suggest a substantial increase in electricity from renewables, rising from just over 40% in 2023 to 82% in 2032, as highlighted by Cornwall Insight.
Despite these successes, several challenges have hindered progress towards the 2030 target, included in all Ireland's Climate Action Plans since 2021. Chief among these challenges are delays in planning and a shortage of grid connections. These issues have created significant barriers for generators submitting bids in the Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) auction, resulting in only three successful onshore wind projects last year.
The announcement of a lower onshore wind auction price cap for the final RESS4 auction, aimed at procuring generation capacity before 2030, has further exacerbated concerns over the lack of onshore wind projects. This lower price cap is likely to deter bidders. Wind Energy Ireland has also warned that dozens of wind farms could be forced to shut down before the end of the decade if their planning permission timelines are not extended, potentially causing additional delays in the renewable energy transition.
In response to these obstacles, some positive steps have been made to improve the RESS scheme. Changes now allow generators to delay their required operational date by up to two years if issues with system operator grid connections or judicial reviews of planning permissions arise, which is hoped to increase the number of renewable bids.
Cornwall Insight also noted positive developments in Northern Ireland, which is designing its own renewable support scheme aimed at boosting renewable energy projects. The first auction is anticipated for 2025/26, with much of the procured capacity expected to come online after 2030.
