he International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global electricity demand will experience its highest growth in two decades in 2024 and 2025, with solar energy projected to meet half of the increase.
According to the IEA's Electricity Mid-Year Update, global electricity consumption is expected to rise by approximately 4% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023. This increase is anticipated to be the highest annual growth rate since 2007, excluding rebounds following major global events such as the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report predicts that this growth trend will continue into 2025, with a similar increase of around 4%. Renewables are expected to play a significant role in this surge, with their share of global electricity supply set to increase from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025. Notably, solar power alone is projected to account for roughly half of the growth in electricity demand over the next two years.
IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori noted, “Growth in global electricity demand this year and next is set to be among the fastest in the past two decades, highlighting the growing role of electricity in our economies as well as the impacts of severe heatwaves.” He added, “It's encouraging to see clean energy's share of the electricity mix continuing to rise, but this needs to happen at a much faster rate to meet international energy and climate goals.”
The report also indicates that despite the increase in renewable energy capacity, global coal power generation is unlikely to decrease significantly this year due to high demand, particularly in China and India. As a result, carbon dioxide emissions from the global power sector are expected to plateau, with a slight rise anticipated in 2024 followed by a potential decline in 2025.
India's electricity demand is projected to surge by 8% in 2024, driven by strong economic activity and intense heatwaves. China is expected to see more than a 6% increase in demand, influenced by robust activity in the services and industrial sectors, including the manufacturing of clean energy technologies. In contrast, electricity demand in the United States is forecast to rebound by 3% after declining in 2023, while the European Union is projected to experience modest growth of 1.7% following two years of contraction.
The IEA report underscores the need for enhanced grid infrastructure and higher energy efficiency standards to accommodate the increased demand and mitigate the impacts of severe weather events. It also highlights the growing attention needed for the electricity demands of data centres, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence, emphasizing the importance of reliable data and effective monitoring.
