Brazil could install up to 96GW of offshore wind capacity by 2050, representing nearly 20% of the country's total generation capacity, according to a World Bank study conducted by DNV.
The study, titled “Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil,” outlines three growth scenarios for offshore wind capacity in the country. The ambitious projection sees Brazil reaching 96GW by 2050. The intermediate scenario estimates 32GW, accounting for 6% of the total generation capacity, while the base case projects 16GW, representing 3%.
This analysis is part of a series of offshore wind roadmap studies commissioned by the World Bank under its Offshore Wind Development Program, funded and led by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), in partnership with the International Finance Corporation.
Brazil's offshore wind potential exceeds 1,200GW, with 480GW from fixed foundations and 748GW from floating foundations. This abundant resource, strategically located near demand centers, positions offshore wind as a crucial component of Brazil's future energy landscape.
The report, prepared in collaboration with Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and the Energy Research Office, emphasizes the need for a clear energy strategy, significant infrastructure investment, and prompt action to harness offshore wind potential.
Offshore wind development is seen as a valuable complement to hydroelectric power, mitigating interannual variability and providing stability during dry periods. It also supports Brazil's green hydrogen targets and could drive economic growth and job creation, potentially generating up to 516,000 full-time equivalent jobs and contributing $168 billion in national gross value added under the ambitious scenario.
Moreover, offshore wind could reduce transmission losses by aligning electricity generation with demand centers, including major cities. However, the study highlights several challenges, such as high initial costs, the need for concessional finance, strategic seabed rights allocation, and significant investments in transmission upgrades and grid flexibility.
Environmental and social considerations also complicate development, requiring meticulous planning and community consultations. Upgrading regional ports, logistics infrastructure, and the offshore wind supply chain to support larger turbine production further adds to the costs.
Santiago Blanco, executive vice-president and regional director for Latin America, energy systems at DNV, commented, “The country's choice to embrace offshore wind power hinges on balancing energy demands, climate goals, and economic growth. Our research offers insights, not directives, outlining the challenges and opportunities to inform strategic decisions.”
