The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its Gas 2023 Medium-Term Market Report, which predicts a deceleration in global demand for natural gas in the mid-term. This shift is attributed to the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources and improvements in energy efficiency.
According to the report, global gas demand is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.6% per year from 2022 to 2026. This represents a notable decrease from the 2.5% average annual growth observed between 2017 and 2021.
The report highlights that the global energy landscape experienced a significant shift in 2022 due to the global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This event marked the beginning of a new era for global gas markets after a decade of robust growth from 2011 to 2021.
Mature markets in regions such as Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America reached their peak gas demand in 2021 and are expected to witness an annual decline of 1% through 2026. Key factors contributing to this decline include an accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources and increased energy efficiency measures in these markets.
Europe, in particular, faced challenges related to energy security as a result of the loss of piped gas from Russia following the Ukraine invasion. This situation prompted governments to explore alternative solutions to maintain energy stability.
As mature markets in various parts of the world experience declining demand, growth in global gas consumption is anticipated to be concentrated in rapidly expanding Asian markets and certain gas-rich economies in the Middle East and Africa. China, in particular, is expected to account for nearly half of the total growth in global gas demand between 2022 and 2026.
Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, noted the changing dynamics in the gas sector, stating, “After their heyday between 2011 and 2021, the world's gas markets have entered a new and more uncertain period that is likely to be characterized by slower growth and higher volatility – and could lead to a peak in global demand by the end of this decade.”
