Researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have conducted an in-depth analysis that suggests offshore wind farms could potentially fulfill as much as 20% of the regional power requirements along the Atlantic coast by 2050. The study delves into various scenarios to gain a clearer understanding of how this emerging sector could contribute to the decarbonization of the U.S. power system.
The role of offshore wind electricity in the United States has been underexamined until now, making this study a valuable addition to the field. According to the findings published in the journal Nature Energy, offshore wind has the capacity to generate approximately 8% of the nation's electricity by 2050. However, the deployment levels could vary significantly, ranging from 30 to 250 gigawatts, depending on several factors related to the power system's evolution over the coming decades.
The research, titled “Expanded modeling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States,” involved collaboration between NREL co-authors Philipp Beiter, Trieu Mai, and Matt Mowers, along with John Bistline from the independent energy research institute EPRI. They examined a wide range of scenarios encompassing policy, technology costs, transmission, and siting.
The study employs a capacity expansion model that takes into account strict zoning regulations for onshore renewables, expanding the potential market for offshore wind. This approach allows the researchers to consider multiple decarbonization pathways and the potential future role of offshore wind.
One of the key insights from the analysis is that high levels of offshore wind deployment are most likely to occur in scenarios involving stringent decarbonization policies, low technology costs, limited siting options for onshore renewables, and constrained interregional transmission.
In many scenarios studied, onshore wind and solar photovoltaics are the primary sources of new electricity demand through 2050, as offshore wind deployment remains limited to levels defined by current state commitments. The study also acknowledges the steady contribution of energy from nuclear, hydropower, and fossil fuels, which may remain constant unless carbon capture and sequestration technologies become available and economically viable.
The study highlights the need for greater coordination among local, state, and federal authorities in planning the power sector and offshore wind infrastructure. It also underscores the importance of addressing the inherent limitations of energy system modeling to arrive at comprehensive conclusions.
Currently, the United States has only two small offshore wind plants in operation, located off the coasts of Rhode Island and Virginia. However, numerous additional projects are proposed along both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The country's first large-scale offshore wind farm, with an expected capacity of 800 megawatts, could begin generating power as early as autumn off the coast of Massachusetts.
