A recent report suggests that the global electricity sector may be approaching its peak in emissions, offering a glimmer of hope in the fight against climate change. Research conducted in 78 countries by the think tank Ember reveals that during the first half of 2023, CO₂ emissions from the global power industry experienced a minimal growth rate of just 0.2%. This period also witnessed record levels of wind and solar energy capacity.
However, this modest increase falls short of Ember's earlier prediction that emissions from fossil fuel-based power generation would decline in 2023. The report highlights that droughts in numerous countries led to an 8.5% reduction in hydropower generation worldwide. To compensate for this shortfall, the use of fossil fuels increased, potentially causing the uptick in emissions from the electricity sector.
Ember's report also underscores the uncertain future of hydropower as a part of the clean energy mix. It acknowledges that the global outlook for the impact of climate change on hydropower output varies geographically.
While wind and solar power accounted for 14.3% of global electricity demand in the first half of 2023, marking a 1.5% increase from the previous year, the growth rate remains insufficient to meet climate targets. According to calculations by the International Energy Agency (IEA), both wind and solar power capacity expanded at a slower pace in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
In 2023, wind and solar output increased by 10% and 16%, respectively, lagging behind the 16% and 26% growth rates observed in the first six months of 2022. The IEA's scenario for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 requires wind and solar capacities to grow annually by an average of 17% and 24%, respectively. The current state of global electricity emissions and the sluggish growth of renewable energy sources raise legitimate concerns about the feasibility of meeting these ambitious targets.
