The Independent Energy Agency (IEA) has revealed that limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement remains achievable, thanks to the remarkable expansion of crucial clean energy technologies. In its latest Net Zero Roadmap, the IEA underscores that the world can still achieve the goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and restrict global warming to 1.5°C. However, it emphasizes the need for a swift acceleration of efforts across multiple sectors to ensure success.
Significant growth has been observed in solar power capacity and electric vehicle (EV) sales since 2021, aligning with the pathway toward global net-zero emissions by the middle of this century. Moreover, industry plans for scaling up manufacturing capacity for these technologies are on track, making them pivotal in delivering one-third of the emissions reductions between now and 2030.
Clean energy innovation has also played a crucial role, offering more options and driving down technology costs. The updated net zero pathway envisages a tripling of global renewable power capacity by 2030, with a simultaneous doubling of the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements. Sales of EVs and heat pumps are projected to rise substantially, and methane emissions from the energy sector are expected to decrease by 75%.
These strategies, built on established and often cost-effective technologies for emissions reduction, are projected to deliver more than 80% of the necessary reductions by the end of the decade.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol conveyed optimism about the feasibility of the 1.5°C warming limit, stating, “Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires the world to come together quickly. The good news is we know what we need to do—and how to do it. Our 2023 Net Zero Roadmap, based on the latest data and analysis, shows a path forward.” However, he emphasized the imperative of strong international cooperation, urging governments to prioritize climate action over geopolitical concerns.
The Net Zero Roadmap outlines a comprehensive strategy to achieve net-zero emissions in the global energy sector by 2050. It acknowledges the need for an equitable transition that accommodates different national circumstances, allowing advanced economies to reach net zero earlier to facilitate emerging and developing economies in their transition.
To stay on course, nearly all countries must revise their targeted net-zero dates, necessitating a substantial increase in investment, particularly in emerging and developing economies. The report envisions global clean energy spending rising from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to $4.5 trillion annually by the early 2030s.
The updated net zero scenario foresees a substantial reduction in fossil fuel demand, driven by a policy-driven expansion of clean energy capacity. By 2030, fossil fuel demand is projected to be 25% lower, resulting in a 35% reduction in emissions compared to the all-time high recorded in 2022. By 2050, fossil fuel demand is expected to plummet by 80%.
The report underscores the critical need for enhanced international cooperation to achieve the 1.5°C goal. It also warns that insufficient ambition and implementation between now and 2030 would elevate climate risks and necessitate massive deployment of costly and unproven carbon removal technologies to meet the target.
