According to recent modeling by Rystad Energy, a leading energy research and consulting firm, the demand for offshore turbine towers is projected to surpass manufacturing capacity by 2029. The analysis reveals that while wind tower manufacturing capacity has been keeping pace with demand, a significant turning point is expected in 2028, after which demand will outstrip capacity by a substantial margin.
By 2029, the steel demand for offshore wind towers is estimated to exceed 1.7 million tonnes, while manufacturing capacity is projected to reach a maximum of approximately 1.3 million tonnes. This leaves the supply able to meet only about 70% of the total demand, highlighting the urgency for action.
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To address this looming issue, European manufacturers must take proactive steps to initiate expansion plans within the next two years, as constructing new tower manufacturing facilities typically takes between two and three years. Failure to do so could exacerbate the supply shortage and hinder the growth of the offshore wind sector.
Alexander Flotre, Vice President at Rystad Energy, emphasized the need for timely action, stating, “European producers must initiate more expansions within the next two years, at the latest. They should not find this problematic as wind towers are made of steel, with no particularly complex or specialized machinery required.”
It is important to note that these forecasts assume no major steel shortage, as manufacturers need to operate at full capacity to meet the anticipated demand. However, if a steel shortage materializes, Europe could face a supply issue even earlier than expected, further underscoring the urgency for expansion plans.
The average turbine capacity fixed in Europe in 2023 is projected to approach nearly 10MW. Looking ahead, Rystad Energy estimates that over 50% of the turbines installed between 2029 and 2035 will have a capacity exceeding 14MW. Furthermore, some projects are already forecasting the construction of 20MW turbines by the early stages of 2030.
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It is worth noting that the weight of offshore wind towers varies depending on the hub height, which must be more than half of the rotor diameter, excluding clearance to the water surface. This parameter fluctuates across different countries. As rotor dimensions and turbine sizes increase, the demand for larger towers also grows.
Europe, with its thriving offshore wind sector, stands at the forefront of this growth. Spain and Denmark currently lead the European offshore wind tower supply, accounting for approximately 90% of the estimated 1.1 million tonnes of the continent's supply.
