The United Kingdom’s energy transition is progressing rapidly but is unlikely to meet several major climate and power sector targets, according to a new outlook published by DNV.
In its latest Energy Transition Outlook for the UK, the energy advisory group said emissions in the country are projected to fall by about 33% by 2035, roughly half the reduction required to meet the country’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.
The report said the current pace of decarbonisation is also insufficient to fully meet the UK’s Clean Power 2030 ambition and the long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
“The dilemma we face is to balance the energy system whilst in transition,” said Hari Vamadevan, senior vice president and regional director for UK and Ireland energy systems at DNV.
He added that debates around the transition often overlook how closely different parts of the energy system are connected.
“Polarized views can obscure the fundamental reality that the energy sector is deeply intertwined, meaning that it is a monumental challenge to prioritize one area over another unless we take into account all parts of the energy system and the adjacent areas like socio-economic developments, nature and bio-diversity,” Vamadevan said.
According to the report, the UK is expected to significantly expand renewable energy capacity over the coming decade. Wind capacity is projected to double while solar capacity will triple within four years, bringing total variable renewable capacity to about 107 gigawatts by 2030.
Despite that expansion, the power system will still rely on natural gas without carbon capture for around 15% of electricity generation.
The outlook also estimates that the UK will still emit about 130 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually by 2050, representing an 84% reduction compared with 1990 levels but falling short of complete net-zero.
By 2060, wind, solar, nuclear and other renewable technologies are expected to supply roughly 85% of low-carbon energy in the country, while imported fossil fuels will account for the remaining share.
Fossil fuels are projected to decline sharply in the broader energy system, falling to around 15% of primary energy supply by 2060 from roughly 75% today. At the same time, overall energy demand is expected to drop by about a quarter by 2050 due to electrification and efficiency improvements.
However, electricity demand from digital infrastructure is expected to grow rapidly. Power consumption from data centres could increase from about 8 terawatt-hours today to around 70 TWh by 2060, the report said.
Sarah Kimpton, energy transition director at DNV and a co-author of the report, said the transition requires coordinated action across multiple sectors.
“What this report outlines is that addressing the energy trilemma and balancing the energy system demands integrated solutions that span technology, infrastructure, policy and behaviour,” Kimpton said.
