Low-emissions sources including renewables and nuclear are forecast to supply half of global electricity by the end of the decade as demand accelerates, according to the International Energy Agency’s Electricity 2026 report.
The IEA said global electricity demand is set to grow by more than 3.5% a year on average through 2030, outpacing overall energy demand by at least 2.5 times as industrial electrification, electric vehicles, air conditioning and data centres expand.
Renewables, natural gas and nuclear generation are all expected to increase to meet rising consumption. Electricity output from renewables – driven by record solar deployments – reached parity with coal in 2025 and is now overtaking it, while nuclear generation is rising to a record level, the agency said.
Low-emissions sources are projected to account for around 50% of global power generation by 2030, up from 42% today.
Emerging and developing economies remain the main drivers of demand growth, but consumption in advanced economies is also rising again after around 15 years of stagnation.
Natural gas-fired generation is forecast to grow, supported by higher demand in the United States and continued fuel switching from oil to gas in the Middle East. Coal generation is expected to decline globally as renewables expand, returning to 2021 levels by the end of the decade, leading the IEA to project broadly flat CO₂ emissions from electricity generation through 2030.
The agency warned that stronger demand, a more weather-dependent generation mix and rapidly changing consumption patterns will require substantial investment in grids and system flexibility.
More than 2,500 gigawatts of renewable, storage and large-load projects remain stalled in global grid connection queues, the report said, adding that deploying grid-enhancing technologies and regulatory reforms for more flexible access could enable up to 1,600GW of these projects to be integrated.
“At a moment of significant uncertainty across energy markets, one certainty is that global electricity demand is growing much more strongly than it did over the past decade,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA director of energy markets and security. He added that annual investment in grids would need to rise by 50% by 2030, alongside expanded flexibility and a stronger focus on security and resilience.
The report noted rapid growth in utility-scale battery installations, with major additions in markets including California, Germany, Texas, South Australia and the UK.
It also highlighted affordability concerns, with household electricity prices in many countries rising faster than incomes since 2019, and warned of increasing risks to power systems from ageing infrastructure, extreme weather, cyber threats and new vulnerabilities.
