Battery storage assets in the ERCOT power market are achieving record forward values even as recent performance has lagged, according to Pexapark’s latest Q3 ERCOT Market Update.
The consultancy said the energy-arbitrage value of battery energy storage systems (BESS) over the next decade has increased by up to 19% year-on-year across three of ERCOT’s four hubs. The trend, it said, reflects a more optimistic long-term view of storage as rising electricity demand and higher renewables penetration widen intraday price spreads.
BESS tolling offers remained broadly flat or declined, suggesting a potential growth opportunity as rising value levels converge with competitive offer pricing, Pexapark said.
Yaniv Yaffe, Pexapark product manager, said widening spreads are expected to support storage economics. “Expected load growth coupled with high levels of solar penetration mean that intraday spreads in ERCOT will, in general, get wider, with consistent midday dips and increasingly prominent shoulder hour spikes,” he said. “This dynamic strengthens the long-term economic rationale for BESS even if recent summers saw decreased levels of price volatility.”
Pexapark said wind and solar power purchase agreements (PPAs) have faced tougher market conditions following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA). A 7% rise in the forward market lifted fair value assessments for wind and solar PPAs during the quarter, but offer prices climbed more quickly — rising 12% for wind and 13% for solar.
Only three ERCOT PPAs were publicly announced in the third quarter, less than half the number signed in the same period last year, Pexapark said. The firm attributed higher offer prices to a more challenging regulatory environment as OBBBA phases out clean-energy tax credits by mid-2026 and introduces tighter restrictions on components sourced from China.
Luca Pedretti, chief operating officer and co-founder of Pexapark, said regulatory changes are disrupting near-term pricing dynamics. “The ERCOT market is facing temporary but acute policy-driven shocks that have created a pricing gap between project costs and buyers’ willingness to pay,” he said. “For wind and solar, the price gap is now significant and is contributing to the shift in focus toward BESS.”
