Rapid advances in solar, wind and battery technologies are accelerating the global shift away from fossil fuels, according to Statkraft’s latest Green Transition Scenarios report released on Tuesday.
The annual study outlines three possible futures — a “green scenario,” a “delayed transition,” and one characterised by “global unrest” — to assess how quickly the world can decarbonise and meet international climate targets.
“In the green scenario, global warming can be limited to 1.9 degrees, in line with the Paris Agreement’s 2 degrees goal, but not sufficient for 1.5,” said Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø, head of global energy drivers and author of the report. “If progress in the energy transition doesn’t continue at a high pace, the report predicts a temperature increase of around 2.4 degrees, with major consequences for people and the planet.”
Bolkesjø said a faster pace of emission cuts remains achievable. “Our scenarios show that it is still possible to reach the 2-degree target of the Paris Agreement, but this requires a significantly faster pace of emission cuts than we see today,” he said. “The rapid cost reductions for mature technologies such as solar, wind and batteries mean that the bulk of global CO₂ emission cuts are still within reach.”
Mari Grooss Viddal, head analyst and lead author of the report, said renewable energy remains central to achieving the transition. “Renewable energy is the key to success, not only to replace coal and gas power, but also to accelerate electrification of transportation and heating,” she said. “A key for the future growth is to adopt more flexibility solutions to integrate more renewable power. Statkraft can play a crucial role in achieving this through our competence in balancing energy markets and investing in flexible solutions.”
The report projects that global solar generation could increase three to six times by 2035 and up to twelve times by 2050, with renewable energy surpassing 50% of total global power generation by 2035 and reaching as high as 80% by mid-century.
“We expect that annual clean power production shortly will increase more than global power demand, meaning that ‘peak’ emissions from the power sector are likely behind us,” Viddal added.
Statkraft said renewable growth will also strengthen Europe’s energy security and competitiveness. The company noted that the European Union has already reduced greenhouse gas emissions by more than one-third since 1990 while expanding its economy by two-thirds.
“This shows that it is entirely possible to cut emissions and simultaneously create economic growth,” Bolkesjø said.
