Global renewable power capacity is expected to more than double by 2030, driven primarily by solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Renewables 2025 report released on Monday.
The IEA forecasts an additional 4,600 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity will come online by the end of the decade — a volume roughly equal to the current total generation capacity of China, the European Union, and Japan combined.
“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director.
“Solar PV is on course to account for some 80% of the increase in the world’s renewable capacity over the next five years.”
While solar leads the expansion due to falling costs and improved permitting processes, the report also highlights key contributions from wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal, which support grid reliability and long-term energy stability.
The IEA said emerging markets across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are showing faster uptake of renewables, spurred by improved cost competitiveness and strengthened policy support. India is projected to become the world’s second-largest growth market after China, and is on track to meet its 2030 targets ahead of schedule.
Developers have largely reaffirmed or increased their 2030 targets, indicating long-term confidence, although challenges remain. Offshore wind is an exception, with capacity forecasts revised 25% lower than last year due to supply chain bottlenecks, rising costs, and shifting policy frameworks.
The global outlook has been adjusted slightly downward compared to the IEA’s previous report, reflecting policy changes in the United States and China. In the U.S., early phase-out of federal tax credits and regulatory delays have cut expected renewable additions by nearly 50%, while China’s shift to auction-based pricing has moderated its pace of expansion.
“Solar is set to surge in markets such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Southeast Asia,” the IEA added, noting growth is increasingly diversified across regions.
Stronger momentum in Europe, India, and several emerging markets is partially offsetting these declines, supported by expanded auction programmes, faster permitting, and rising demand for corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs). The IEA expects PPAs, utility contracts, and merchant plants to contribute 30% of global capacity additions by 2030, double the share from its previous forecast.
Despite the positive outlook, the agency warned of growing grid integration challenges, especially with variable renewables like wind and solar. Curtailment and negative pricing events are becoming more common, underscoring the need for accelerated investment in grids, energy storage, and flexible backup capacity.
While solar PV remains the lowest-cost electricity generation source in most regions, the IEA said wind power is expected to regain momentum as supply constraints ease in China, Europe, and India.
The report also noted concentration risks in supply chains. Over 90% of global solar PV manufacturing and a significant share of rare earth elements used in wind turbines remain concentrated in China, with limited diversification expected through 2030.
In the transport and heating sectors, the IEA projects modest gains, with renewables’ share of energy use rising from 4% to 6% in transport, and from 14% to 18% in heat generation by 2030. These gains will be driven by renewable electricity in electric vehicles and biofuels in Brazil, Indonesia, and India.
The IEA concluded that while the outlook for renewable electricity remains strong, policy certainty, infrastructure investment, and supply chain diversification will be critical to sustaining momentum.
