Wind and solar energy are expected to meet the vast majority of new electricity demand worldwide over the next decade, according to BP’s Energy Outlook 2025, released this week.
The report projects that more than 80% of additional global power demand through 2035 will be supplied by new wind and solar generation, with China alone accounting for nearly half of that growth.
“Solar is projected to grow more rapidly than wind, driven by lower costs, shorter construction times, and strong policy support,” BP said.
By 2050, wind and solar are forecast to contribute over half of global electricity generation in BP’s base scenario. In a pathway aligned with limiting global warming to below 2°C, that share could rise to 70%.
The company noted that scaling up renewable deployment will require parallel investment in supporting infrastructure, including energy storage, flexible generation, advanced transmission grids and cross-border interconnections, to accommodate increasing volumes of variable supply.
BP also anticipates a significant decline in coal’s role in the global power mix. From a 35% share in 2023, coal is expected to fall to just above 20% by 2035, as wind and solar shift from adding incremental supply to replacing fossil fuel generation.
Emerging economies, particularly China and India, are highlighted as key drivers of demand growth and renewable capacity expansion. In contrast, electricity demand in developed markets is projected to remain relatively stable, though increased electrification of transport, heating, and industry will push renewables further into the generation mix.
By mid-century, BP estimates that wind and solar could supply more than 60% of China’s electricity, and over 70% across OECD countries under its net-zero-aligned scenario.
“The pace of renewables deployment will be critical to achieving global climate goals,” the report concluded. “The decarbonisation of the power sector is essential to the broader energy transition.
