The U.S. wind energy sector experienced a notable surge in new installations during the first quarter of 2025, but a sharp decline in turbine orders signaled growing concern over policy and regulatory uncertainties, according to a new industry report released Tuesday.
The U.S. Wind Energy Monitor, a joint report by Wood Mackenzie and the American Clean Power Association (ACP), recorded 2,100 megawatts (MW) of wind capacity installed in the first quarter—more than double the level seen in the same period last year. All of the additions came from new onshore projects.
Despite this early-year momentum, new wind turbine orders dropped by 50% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The volume marked the lowest level since 2020, according to the report.
“The surge in first-quarter wind installations, combined with a strong development pipeline, underscores the wind industry’s resilience and its capacity to rapidly deliver the clean, affordable, and reliable energy America needs,” said John Hensley, ACP’s senior vice president of markets and policy analysis. “But this momentum is threatened by the changing policy landscape.”
Analysts attribute the downturn in turbine orders to a mix of trade tariffs, permitting delays, and uncertainty surrounding federal tax credits. These factors are prompting some developers to postpone or scale back projects, Wood Mackenzie said.
“Market volatility will prompt a short-term decrease in onshore additions,” said Leila Garcia da Fonseca, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. “A quarter-over-quarter net reduction of roughly 430MW in the U.S. onshore wind outlook from 2025–2029 reflects growing uncertainty for currently under-development projects, mainly driven by ongoing permitting challenges, tariff risk, and now a sunset of tax credits.”
Wood Mackenzie expects a total of 8.1 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity—spanning onshore, offshore, and repowering—to be installed by the end of 2025. Over the five-year outlook, average annual installations are projected at 8.9GW.
Turbine orders may see a partial recovery later in the year, driven by anticipated policy clarity following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the report noted.
Looking further ahead, a late-decade increase in activity is anticipated as developers aim to complete projects before key tax incentives expire. Western states are expected to lead growth with 9.4GW in cumulative additions through 2029.
On the offshore front, the outlook remains steady, with 5.9GW of capacity projected to come online by 2029. Most of these projects are already under construction, and analysts do not expect new final investment decisions for additional offshore projects during President Trump’s current term.
“While we assume projects currently under construction or heading to construction will come online, we don’t expect to see any additional projects take a final investment decision during President Trump’s second term in office,” Garcia da Fonseca added. “This could have a significant impact on the number of offshore projects constructed in the 2030s.
Despite the near-term headwinds, the report highlights the underlying strength of the wind sector’s development pipeline, though future growth will depend heavily on regulatory clarity and stable policy support.
