Solar power installations across the European Union are projected to decline in 2024 for the first time in a decade, according to a mid-year report published by trade group SolarPower Europe, potentially putting the bloc’s long-term renewable energy goals at risk.
The organization estimates that under current trends, the EU will reach 723 gigawatts (GW) of direct current (DC) solar capacity by 2030—falling short of its 750 GW target. The slowdown is attributed largely to a sharp contraction in the rooftop solar segment, especially in the residential market.
“In many major Member States, primarily households and SMEs are postponing investment in solar installations following lowering electricity price trends and weakened support frameworks,” SolarPower Europe said.
The analysis highlights that residential systems, which contributed 30% of installations between 2020 and 2023, are expected to make up only 15% of new capacity this year. According to the report, the decline follows the scaling back or removal of rooftop solar incentives in several countries, leading to a short-term surge in installations followed by a market dip.
“In many cases, rooftop solar incentives have been withdrawn or scaled back without effective alternatives, resulting in a short rush and sudden market decline,” the report stated.
Despite the downturn in residential installations, utility-scale solar is expected to continue expanding and could represent around half of all new capacity added in 2024. The report attributes the segment’s resilience to financing mechanisms and long-term contracts that mitigate investment risks.
“Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (CPPAs) have offered long-term certainty at competitive cost for developers and off-takers, which is the reason for the boom of PPAs in the recent years,” it noted.
The group urged EU governments to improve market conditions by investing in energy storage and grid flexibility. It said such steps are needed to enhance the value of solar power within the broader energy system.
SolarPower Europe concluded that without stronger policy support and system-level integration, the EU may struggle to maintain momentum in its solar rollout.
