The United Kingdom risks losing tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs by the end of the decade unless urgent, coordinated action is taken to accelerate the growth of offshore renewable energy, according to a new report from Robert Gordon University (RGU).
The report, “Striking the Balance – Building a Sustainable UK Offshore Energy Workforce,” warns that without substantial investment in offshore wind and continued support for domestic oil and gas output, the UK could see a significant decline in its offshore workforce by 2030.
“The UK’s lack of joined-up action means that the window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing,” said Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of RGU’s Energy Transition Institute. “Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20% to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.”
Currently employing around 39,000 workers, the offshore renewables sector is projected to grow to between 84,000 and 153,000 jobs by 2035. However, RGU notes that this growth may not come quickly enough to absorb the workforce exiting the oil and gas sector, particularly before 2027.
In its analysis, RGU outlines three workforce scenarios through 2035 — low, mid, and high case — based on the level of investment and policy support. In the high-case scenario, UK offshore energy jobs could exceed 210,000 by 2035. This would require the addition of 35 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capacity and ongoing domestic oil and gas production, a model comparable to energy strategies being implemented in Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands.
To simply maintain current workforce levels, the UK would need to deliver close to 40GW of offshore wind and sustain oil and gas output at around 0.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, with up to 40% UK content in capital expenditures.
RGU also highlights that without faster progress, the country could see workforce reductions of approximately 400 jobs every two weeks — a pace comparable to the recent job losses at the Grangemouth refinery — for the next five years.
“The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach,” said de Leeuw. “The analysis shows that there is a workforce ‘Goldilocks zone’ between 2025 and 2030 during which the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in.”
The report estimates that up to £350 billion in investment could be directed toward UK offshore energy infrastructure from 2025 to 2035. Realizing that potential, the authors say, will depend on rapid policy alignment and investment in domestic capability to deliver both green energy projects and decommissioning work with high UK content.
RGU’s findings underscore the need for a coordinated national approach to ensure the offshore energy transition supports both climate goals and workforce stability.
