US soybean oil is set to be used more for biofuel production in 2023-24, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The report, released on May 12, forecasts slightly lower prices for soybean oil.
The US soybean crop is expected to increase by 5% to 4.51 billion bushels in 2023-24, primarily due to higher yields. This will lead to an increase in soybean supplies of 4% to 4.75 billion bushels compared with the previous year, despite lower beginning stocks.
Total US oilseed production is predicted to reach 132.8 million tons, up 6.9 million from 2022-23, mainly due to higher soybean production. The forecast is also higher for canola, peanuts, and cottonseed.
The USDA predicts that the US soybean crush will rise by 90 million bushels to 2.31 billion bushels in 2023-24, driven by favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock. The amount of soybean oil used as a biofuel is set to rise to 12.5 billion pounds from 11.6 billion pounds in 2022-23.
Domestic soybean meal consumption is expected to increase by 2% from 2022-23, primarily due to lower prices and modest growth in poultry production. Soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.8 million short tons, leaving the US share of global trade slightly above the prior five-year average. US soybean exports are expected to reach 1.98 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2022-23, due to strong competition from increasing South American production and limited gains in global import demand.
Soybean and product prices are all forecast to decline for 2023-24, with the US season-average soybean price expected to drop from $14.20 per bushel to $12.10 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are set to fall to $365 per short ton, down $90, while soybean oil prices are predicted to reach 58 cents per pound, down 6 cents from 2022-23.
Globally, soybean trade is expected to rise by 4 million tons to 172.4 million in 2023-24, driven by increased demand from China and higher imports from Pakistan, Egypt, and Bangladesh. However, the US share of global exports is predicted to decline, due to weaker growth in China and EU soybean imports, coupled with record South American supplies.
Global soybean ending stocks are set to increase by 21.5 million tons to 122.5 million in 2023-24, with most of the increase in Brazil, Argentina, the US, and China. The figure includes mid-season stocks for Brazil and Argentina and reflects growing supplies leading into the 2024 US export season.
