Europe's Energy Transition: 267GW of Wind and Solar Capacity Expected by 2030

LCP Delta’s latest analysis forecasts that Europe will add approximately 267 gigawatts (GW) of grid-scale wind and solar capacity by 2030, marking a significant step in the region’s transition to renewable energy. The buildout is expected to be accompanied by a surge in household electrification in key European economies, contributing to rising volatility in power markets and increased distribution network congestion. The report outlines the growing importance of energy flexibility to ensure a smooth transition. Both demand-side flexibility and grid-scale energy storage will play vital roles in addressing these challenges. Flexibility, the ability to shift demand and balance supply, will grow rapidly from 2025 to 2030. Grid-scale batteries are predicted to see a 41GW increase in capacity, while demand-side flexibility is expected to increase five-fold, from 20GW in 2024 to 100GW across seven major European markets. Germany Leads in Battery Market, Spain Lags in Flexibility Germany has emerged as the most attractive market for grid-scale batteries, surpassing Great Britain, which was previously considered the top market. In contrast, Spain is deemed the least attractive market for both grid-scale batteries and demand-side flexibility, according to the analysis. The report also highlights several key challenges facing the transition, including customer engagement, distribution network congestion, and power market volatility. These challenges will be particularly evident across seven European markets: Great Britain, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Excess Renewable Generation and Electrolysis Pipeline Growth By 2030, wind and solar capacity in these markets is expected to generate 60% of the annual energy demand in four European countries, although a mismatch between generation and demand means the actual share will be lower. In particular, Great Britain and Germany are forecast to experience excess renewable and nuclear generation for 56% and 46% of hours, respectively, by 2030, compared to just 6% and 17% in 2024. Europe’s electrolysis pipeline, focused on hydrogen production, is set to expand to 63GW, though only 9% of these projects are expected to be at advanced stages of development by 2030. The UK’s electrolysis pipeline will grow to 8.7GW, with only 5% of the projects at advanced stages. Jon Slowe, partner at LCP Delta, commented: "We are currently witnessing the disruption of traditional energy value chains, as the old energy retail system gives way to a new interconnected value chain, filled with opportunity for companies able to evolve and even pivot their businesses." Slowe emphasized the importance of flexibility and customer engagement as integral elements in the energy transition. "The opportunities for companies that can bring flexibility to market, and can simplify customer’s electrification journeys, is enormous. Our report suggests that in this brave new world, only holistic approaches that overcome traditional siloed thinking will find success," he added. As Europe navigates this transformative energy shift, the pace and direction of the transition will depend on its ability to manage the growing complexity of power generation, distribution, and consumption across the continent.

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Europe’s Energy Transition: 267GW of Wind and Solar Capacity Expected by 2030

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