The global offshore wind sector is poised for a significant recovery in 2025, with expected capacity additions of 19 gigawatts (GW) and sector-wide spending projected to reach $80 billion, according to research from Rystad Energy. This follows a slowdown at the end of 2024, when new installations fell to approximately 8GW, down 2GW from the previous year.
Rystad attributes the upcoming rebound to a “record wave” of lease auctions, particularly in China, which remains the world's largest offshore wind market, contributing 65% of the new capacity. Total capacity additions in 2025 are expected to surpass the previous peak seen in 2021 by about 1GW, and exceed the 7.7GW added in 2024, 10.2GW in 2023, and 9.3GW in 2022.
However, while the increase in new capacity reflects progress, Rystad also notes lingering uncertainty surrounding lease agreements—the long-term contracts between landowners and wind energy companies. “A record 55GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally (excluding Mainland China) in 2024,” the report said. However, not all of this offered capacity has been awarded, as there is often a gap between what is offered and what is ultimately contracted. For example, the U.S. saw no bids for its 3GW floating wind auction in Oregon, while the Gulf of Maine auction awarded around 7GW of the approximately 13GW offered.
Despite the record offerings in 2024, Rystad projects a decline in lease auction openings in 2025, with an expected 30-40GW of offered capacity, significantly lower than in 2024 but still in line with levels seen in 2021 and 2022.
“Global offshore wind is set for a robust year in 2025; however, certain signals could affect its smooth upward trajectory,” said Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst at Rystad Energy. “U.S. federal policy is creating significant global ripple effects, hindering offshore wind development, especially in regions with a large portion of auctioned capacity.
Manuel pointed to President Donald Trump's January memorandum halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) as a major factor. The memorandum, citing environmental and safety concerns, could extend throughout his term, potentially pausing new developments and introducing continued uncertainty for ongoing projects.
