Europe's energy security strategy must adapt to the growing challenges facing the region's power supply, according to a new study commissioned by Eurelectric, the European electricity industry association. The study highlights the importance of transitioning to clean electrification as a means to reduce dependence on fuel imports, minimize vulnerability to commodity price shocks, and enhance resilience.
“The recent year has shown us that business-as-usual in Europe is no longer an option,” said Leonhard Birnbaum, president of Eurelectric and CEO of E.ON. He added, “With the threats faced by our sector, security of supply is becoming an urgent priority that policymakers and regulators must acknowledge.”
The study, conducted by Compass Lexecon, points to a range of challenges impacting Europe's energy security. These include geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine and disruptions in Russian fuel supplies, as well as infrastructure damage, including the destruction of Baltic subsea cables and power outages caused by severe storms in Ireland.
As Europe moves towards decarbonization, with clean and renewable energy projected to account for 60% of the continent's final energy use by 2050, Eurelectric emphasized that energy security strategies must evolve in response to these shifts. The European Union's current energy security strategy, adopted in 2014, was designed during a time when reliance on Russian energy imports was high, and renewable energy made up a small portion of the overall energy mix. Since then, both the energy landscape and geopolitical dynamics have changed significantly.
The study outlines that energy imports to the EU, which made up 60% of energy supply in 2022, are expected to drop to 13% by 2050 due to the electrification of transport and heating. Additionally, renewable energy is forecasted to generate 69% of Europe's power by 2030, with a gradual phase-out of Russian oil and gas.
In light of these changes, Eurelectric advocates for an integrated, power-led approach to energy security. The study recommends better planning across the entire value chain, factoring in external threats to more accurately identify system needs. The study also highlights the necessity of flexible capacity to complement the variability of renewable energy sources.
To foster investments in the energy sector, Eurelectric stresses the importance of capacity mechanisms and flexibility support schemes. Additionally, functioning energy markets that provide effective price signals are crucial to encourage consumer participation in securing the energy supply.
“This is not going to be an easy endeavour,” Birnbaum remarked. “Let's make sure Europe has the right vision for it.
