The UK is on track to transition towards a cleaner, more efficient, and cost-effective energy system by 2050, according to a new report from DNV, a global independent energy expert and assurance provider. The report, titled the UK Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), evaluates the country’s progress in meeting key government targets, including Clean Power 2030, the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2035, and the long-term net zero goal set for 2050.
Despite significant strides towards decarbonisation, the UK is projected to miss its net-zero target by 18%. DNV’s analysis anticipates an 82% reduction in emissions by 2050, relative to 1990 levels, leaving an annual emission of 145 million tons of CO₂ equivalent. According to the report, “While the UK’s journey towards net zero will fall short, the progress made in reducing emissions remains substantial and aligned with the country’s overall energy transition goals.”
The immediate target of Clean Power 2030 aims for a fully decarbonised electricity system by the end of the decade. However, DNV forecasts that gas will still account for 12% of the UK’s electricity generation in 2030. Full decarbonisation of the power sector is expected by 2035. Renewables, particularly solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind, will experience significant growth, with capacity nearly doubling to 90 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. However, this figure still falls short of the government’s target, which aims to double onshore wind, triple solar, and quadruple offshore wind capacity.
Under the new NDC, the UK has committed to reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 81% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels. However, DNV projects a 68% reduction, indicating that more aggressive action will be needed to meet these pledges. “Despite economic and geopolitical challenges, the UK’s trajectory remains positive,” said Hari Vamadevan, executive vice president and regional director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems at DNV. “A substantial green prize for our economy – cleaner and more affordable energy – is there for the taking if we can grasp it. We must act swiftly to ensure we make decisive moves along the correct path.”
The report also highlights the cost-effectiveness of decarbonisation, projecting that household energy costs will drop by nearly 40% by 2050 compared to 2021 levels. Energy demand is expected to shrink by 25%, even as electricity consumption more than doubles, requiring 180GW of new generation capacity. This decoupling of energy demand and GDP is attributed to ongoing energy-efficiency improvements across the economy. By 2050, low-carbon sources are expected to surpass fossil fuels, which will decline from 75% of primary energy today to 34%. However, oil and gas are projected to remain dominant in the next decade, with significant amounts still necessary to balance energy demand and ensure security of supply.
