Chinese wind turbine exports are projected to see significant growth over the next decade, rising from just under 10GW in the past 12 years to more than 100GW by 2034, according to a report from analyst firm Brinkmann. The primary markets for these exports are expected to be regions in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with notable growth anticipated in the South American market.
Goldwind and Envision, two of China's leading wind turbine manufacturers, are forecast to dominate the export market for onshore wind turbines between 2024 and 2034, collectively accounting for nearly 90% of the country's onshore wind turbine exports. However, Brinkmann's analysis predicts that Chinese turbine manufacturers will face limited market penetration in more mature markets, such as Europe and the United States, over the next decade.
Vestas, a global leader in wind turbine manufacturing, is expected to maintain its dominant position outside of China, benefiting from its technological expertise, broad geographic reach, and substantial development pipeline. Meanwhile, Nordex is positioned for significant growth, with its competitive pricing and advanced technology offerings likely to increase its market share in the coming years.
Brinkmann also highlighted challenges for other major players in the industry, particularly Siemens Gamesa and GE Vernova. Siemens Gamesa is expected to maintain its leadership in offshore wind outside of China, largely due to its technological advancements, including the introduction of its 20+MW offshore wind turbine prototype, which is expected to influence the direction of the industry after 2030.
Vestas is also set to increase its offshore wind turbine installations, particularly with its V236 model, although it will need to match Siemens Gamesa's technological advancements to stay competitive. GE Vernova is expected to face limited installations in the short- to mid-term but could re-enter the market in 2030 if it introduces new competitive technology.
The report underscores the dynamic nature of the wind turbine industry and the competitive shifts expected in global markets over the next decade.
