Floating solar photovoltaic (FPV) installations are projected to grow significantly, with a total capacity of 77 GWdc expected worldwide by 2033, according to Wood Mackenzie's Floating Solar Landscape 2024 report. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region dominates the FPV market, contributing 81% of global developments and an anticipated 57 GWdc of the capacity over the next decade.
Harshul Kanwar, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, highlighted the leading role of countries like India, China, and Indonesia, which collectively account for 31 GWdc of FPV capacity. Kanwar noted, “In 2024 alone, approximately 1.7 GWdc of new FPV capacity is expected to come online, with the APAC region contributing 90% of this growth.”
In Europe, Germany, France, and the Netherlands are expected to spearhead the region's FPV growth, collectively accounting for over 60% of its future capacity. Germany is set to lead with 2.2 GWdc by 2033, followed by France with 1.2 GWdc and the Netherlands at 1 GWdc. However, restrictive development criteria, such as coverage and distance limits, pose challenges to further expansion in the region.
The United States remains a smaller FPV market, with projections suggesting only 0.7 GWdc will be installed by 2033. High capital expenditure (CAPEX) and competition with ground-mounted solar systems hinder growth in the U.S. market.
Afiq Naqiuddin, another Wood Mackenzie analyst, remarked on the potential for FPV growth driven by innovation and market interest. “In the coming years, growing interest from leading renewable energy developers and private investments will drive the deployment of FPV,” Naqiuddin said. He cited companies like BayWa r.e., Ciel & Terre, and Sungrow, which are expanding FPV projects globally.
The report highlighted the decreasing costs of FPV systems due to price drops in PERC and TOPCon modules, reducing overall CAPEX despite FPV still being more expensive than ground-mounted systems. Additionally, hybrid FPV-hydro projects, which combine FPV with reservoirs to enhance energy storage, are becoming increasingly popular. These hybrid projects are expected to reach peak installation between 2026 and 2028.
Nevertheless, challenges such as complex clearance processes and inconsistent technical standards have delayed many FPV projects, shifting some anticipated capacity from 2024 to 2026 or later.
