Renewables, particularly solar energy, are projected to meet nearly half of global electricity demand by the end of the decade, as detailed in the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report. The report highlights a significant increase in renewable power capacity, estimating that over 5,500 GW will be added globally between 2024 and 2030—approximately three times the capacity increase observed from 2017 to 2023.
China is expected to account for nearly 60% of this new capacity, which would elevate its share of the world's total renewable power to almost 50% by 2030, up from a third in 2010. While China leads in volume, India is noted for having the fastest growth rate among major economies.
Solar energy alone is anticipated to contribute 80% of the new renewable capacity during this period, driven by both large-scale solar projects and increased rooftop installations. Meanwhile, the wind sector is expected to recover, with its growth rate projected to double in comparison to previous years.
The report indicates that nearly 70 countries, representing 80% of global renewable capacity, are likely to surpass their renewable energy targets for 2030. However, achieving the tripling of renewable capacity set by governments at the COP28 climate change conference may be challenging, with the forecast estimating a 2.7-fold increase instead.
The IEA suggests that meeting the tripling target is feasible through bold actions in the upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and increased international cooperation to reduce financing costs, especially in developing regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that renewables are advancing more rapidly than governments can set targets, primarily because they are now the most cost-effective option for new power generation. By 2030, wind and solar are expected to comprise 30% of global electricity generation, although integration of these variable sources into power systems needs to improve, as current rates of curtailment have reached around 10% in several countries.
To address these challenges, the report recommends enhancing power system flexibility, streamlining permitting processes, and modernizing electricity grids to accommodate a larger share of renewable generation. The share of renewables in final energy consumption is projected to rise to nearly 20% by 2030, while renewable fuels, necessary for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors, require targeted policy support to accelerate their adoption.
Finally, the report discusses the state of renewable technology manufacturing, forecasting a significant increase in global solar manufacturing capacity, which is expected to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024. Despite a decline in module prices due to oversupply, many manufacturers are facing financial challenges. Policymakers are urged to find a balance between the costs and benefits of local manufacturing, considering factors such as job creation and energy security.
