Japan, traditionally reliant on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, could achieve energy independence by 2060 with a strategic expansion in solar and wind power, accompanied by advancements in storage battery technology. Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy consultancy, emphasized this potential shift, suggesting that Japan's current dependency on foreign energy sources might become obsolete due to technological advancements in renewables.
“Japan's mindset is that we have to import energy because we have no energy ourselves. But with the development in renewable energy technologies, I think that statement doesn't need to be true,” Rystad stated in an interview with Reuters.
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Rystad proposed a comprehensive energy mix for Japan by 2060: 45% solar power, 30% wind energy primarily sourced from offshore farms, 5% hydropower, another 5% from biomass and e-fuel, complemented by nuclear power making up the remaining 15%. This plan aligns with Japan's government strategy to decrease the contribution of LNG and coal to under 40% of the power generation mix by 2030, down from the current 60%.
To achieve this ambitious goal, Rystad highlighted the need for Japan to maintain its current pace of solar installations, akin to the period before 2020 when between 10 and 12 gigawatts were installed annually.
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“Mixing agriculture with solar panels — which also provide the shade preferred by some types of crops — as well as solar rooftops above roads, among other solutions, could help to expand the use of such power,” Rystad suggested.
Japan's recent efforts in solar energy have been notable, with approximately 4 gigawatts of new solar capacity added last year, bringing its total solar capacity to 87 gigawatts, the third largest in the world behind China and the United States.
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Rystad emphasized the potential of a diversified renewable energy portfolio, combining offshore and onshore wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, backed by battery and pumped hydro storage. He believes such measures could pave the way for Japan to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2060.
“If we have any hope of reducing the damages from climate change over the next couple of decades, methane is a key,” Rystad concluded.
