According to the latest analysis from Wood Mackenzie, China's solar exports experienced a remarkable 64% growth, reaching $52 billion in 2022, despite global trade tensions. Interestingly, China's export market was primarily dominated by solar modules during this period. Europe, in particular, remained the top destination for Chinese solar module exports, capturing a significant 56% share.
However, the solar cell segment witnessed even more impressive growth, surpassing 100%, as the global photovoltaic (PV) market expanded. South-east Asia emerged as a key market, accounting for 31% of China's solar cell exports. One of the driving factors behind this shift in production was the imposition of US tariffs on Chinese-made modules. Consequently, many manufacturing facilities in south-east Asia began importing cells from China.
Alex Whitworth, a research director from Wood Mackenzie, pointed out that the energy crisis has overshadowed trade tensions. High power prices have prompted consumers and developers worldwide to increase their purchases of solar panels from China. Despite this surge in demand, Chinese modules have managed to maintain their cost-competitiveness, remaining up to 57% cheaper than modules produced in the US and EU.
The main driver of this price gap lies in material costs. China enjoys advantages such as low energy costs, economies of scale, and government support, which contribute to the country's cost efficiency in solar module manufacturing. In contrast, solar module production in the US and EU struggles to compete without subsidies.
Looking ahead, Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China's export capacity for upstream wafers and cells will exceed 230GW by 2026, comfortably meeting the global market demand outside China of 170GW by that year. Furthermore, China's available module capacity for export is expected to gradually grow to 149GW by 2026, allowing other markets to expand their module production.
Manufacturers are increasingly investing in the upstream sectors, such as wafers and cells, which offer higher profitability compared to modules. Despite efforts by the US, including a $41 billion allocation for domestic manufacturing through the IRA (presumably the International Renewable Agency), imported modules still enjoy cost advantages. Even with the establishment of local module production in the coming years, there will likely be a continued dependence on component imports from Asia.
