In a pivotal report released by BloombergNEF, titled the New Energy Outlook 2024, a glimmer of hope emerges amidst the looming threat of climate change. The report suggests that despite the pressing timeline, the world still possesses the capacity to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius, thereby averting the catastrophic consequences of climate change.
The study underscores the critical importance of accelerating the deployment of clean technologies and decarbonizing the power sector with unprecedented speed. The report, designed to inform public policymaking and corporate strategies, introduces two climate scenarios: the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) and the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS).
According to the NZS, which aligns with a 67% probability of limiting global warming to 1.75 degrees Celsius, demand for fossil fuels experiences an immediate peak and subsequently plunges into a steep decline, commencing as early as 2025. Key sectors such as power, transport, industry, and buildings witness a rapid transition towards decarbonization, facilitated by the proliferation of clean energy technologies.
David Hostert, head of economics and modeling at BNEF and lead author of the report, issued a sobering reminder, stating, “The path to staying well below two degrees is narrowing.” Hostert emphasized the urgent need for immediate emissions reductions to uphold the possibility of achieving net zero by mid-century.
The report highlights the pivotal role of the power sector in mitigating emissions, attributing nearly half of the avoided emissions between now and 2050 to its decarbonization efforts.
Furthermore, the report introduces the ETS, a scenario where clean-energy technologies proliferate based solely on economic competitiveness or consumer preference, without additional policy support. In this scenario, renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, experience rapid growth, comprising 51% of global power generation by 2030 and escalating to 70% by 2050.
Ian Berryman, Lead energy systems modeller at BNEF, underscored the feasibility of accommodating high penetrations of wind and solar in the power system. Berryman stated, “Our hourly modelling shows that power systems can accommodate very high penetrations of wind and solar without incurring higher costs.” He emphasized the pivotal role of smart technologies in fostering flexibility within the power system, laying the groundwork for a future dominated by affordable renewables.
