The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its coal export projections upward following a notable surge in February data and advancements in restoring access to the Port of Baltimore. This rise in forecasts comes amidst a decline in coal production observed in April.
Metallurgical coal exports, primarily sourced from Appalachia, are anticipated to reach 8 million short tons (MMst) in both April and May, despite initial concerns regarding access to the Port of Baltimore, a pivotal export nexus responsible for approximately 20% of metallurgical coal exports.
The overall coal export forecast for the months of April and May has seen a significant 9% increase, now totaling 13 MMst. This adjustment has consequently contributed to a 4% uptick in the EIA’s annual coal export forecast for 2024, now pegged at 99 MMst.
However, domestic coal production witnessed a notable 19% dip from March to April, attributed to miners entering the shoulder season with elevated inventories.
The EIA forecasts a resurgence in production in the forthcoming months, with a projected peak of 49 MMst anticipated in August, followed by a gradual decline towards the year’s end.
In the broader scope, U.S. coal production is anticipated to hit 500 MMst in 2024, with a slight downtick to around 490 MMst projected for 2025.
In the previous month, the EIA had downwardly revised its April coal export forecasts by 33%, with a subsequent 20% reduction in its May projections. This adjustment was prompted by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, leading to the closure of the port.
The reconstruction of the collapsed bridge is estimated to incur costs ranging between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion, with completion anticipated by the autumn of 2028.
