China, acclaimed for its remarkable strides in global green energy leadership, is projected to maintain a significant dependency on fossil fuels by 2050, despite its substantial advancements in renewable energy, according to findings unveiled in the latest DNV report.
Titled “Energy Transition Outlook China,” the report underscores China's unparalleled commitment to renewable energy infrastructure and technology export. Nevertheless, it anticipates fossil fuels to retain a notable presence, constituting 40% of the nation's energy mix by mid-century.
“Intense policy focus and technological innovation are transforming China into a green energy powerhouse,” remarked Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. “There is much to admire about China's energy transition.”
Eriksen emphasized the need for China to expedite its transition away from fossil fuels, advocating for a swifter trajectory towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
The report highlights China's remarkable progress in renewable energy adoption. By 2050, renewable energy installations are forecasted to surge more than fivefold, with wind energy emerging as a particularly dominant force. “By mid-century it will comfortably be the world's largest wind market,” the report notes.
Solar energy has also experienced exponential growth, escalating from less than 1% of power generation in 2015 to a significant 5% today. Forecasts suggest both solar and wind will each contribute 38% to electricity production by 2050.
Despite these advancements, fossil fuel consumption, especially in oil and gas, is expected to persist, heavily reliant on imports. “There are visible signs of a vast decarbonisation effort and clean technology development within renewable energy, storage, and transmission technologies,” Eriksen observed.
The report predicts a halving of China's oil consumption by 2050 from its peak in 2027, with imports meeting 84% of the nation's oil requirements. Similarly, natural gas consumption will remain substantial, with a majority being imported, albeit marginally below 2023 levels by 2050.
China's energy landscape is poised for significant transformation, with energy usage anticipated to peak by 2030 and subsequently decline by 20% by 2050. This decline, as outlined in the report, is attributed to advancements in electrification, energy efficiency, and demographic shifts, including a projected decrease of 100 million in population.
