Britain is at risk of falling short of its decarbonisation targets for 2030 and its ambitious goal of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the century, according to a report by Norwegian risk manager DNV.
Under the Paris Agreement, Britain has pledged to reduce emissions by 68% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, DNV's forecast suggests that the reduction may only reach 55% by the end of the decade, highlighting the urgent need for immediate action.
“Without immediate action, the UK will fail to deliver on its climate commitments and fall behind in the global race to decarbonize,” warned Hari Vamadevan, Executive Vice President and Regional Director, UK & Ireland, Energy Systems at DNV.
In addition to international commitments, Britain has set its own legally binding target of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. However, DNV's report indicates that the country's annual emissions in 2050 are projected to be 125 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, representing only an 85% reduction from 1990 levels, rather than the 100% reduction targeted by the government.
The transport and buildings sectors are identified as the largest contributors to total annual emissions in 2050, according to DNV. Despite government efforts, including delaying the ban on new petrol and diesel cars and vans to 2035, significant challenges remain, particularly in transitioning commercial vehicles away from fossil fuels and reducing emissions from aviation.
Currently, around 80% of Britain's primary energy supply comes from fossil fuels, with only 13% from renewables and 7% from nuclear sources. DNV's report suggests that heavy reliance on fossil fuels is expected to persist, with fossil fuels projected to still account for 71% of primary energy supply by 2031, and a third of all primary energy supply still coming from fossil fuels by mid-century.
DNV emphasizes the importance of accelerating decarbonization efforts through the swift deployment of renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar PV, smart grid infrastructure, electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage, and hydrogen. While the government aims for 10 gigawatts of low-carbon hydrogen production by 2030, DNV's analysis suggests that production may fall short of expectations, with only 60% of hydrogen being low-carbon by that time.
