China's ambitious growth in the renewable energy sector, marked by a 47% increase in solar power capacity and a 15.6% rise in wind capacity, faces obstacles due to ongoing coal capacity expansion and a rapid surge in energy consumption, according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBF).
The report acknowledges China's significant strides in renewables, highlighting the potential for emissions to peak and decrease if the current expansion rate is sustained. However, challenges persist, with the need for intensified efforts in energy efficiency and a transformation of the growth model to address soaring energy consumption that exceeds “1.5-degree scenarios.”
China's role in global climate action is deemed crucial by CREA-HBF, but the report points out that the country's carbon dioxide emissions rebounded in 2023, primarily due to low hydropower output and post-COVID economic revival. Despite a decline in emissions from the real estate slump, demand for energy and materials, driven by clean energy and electric vehicle manufacturing, offset the reduction.
The report highlights concerns over China's coal-fired capacity, indicating that the nation is “badly off track” in controlling it. Despite encouraging strides in renewables, China has granted permits for 152GW of new coal power since the beginning of 2022, with 92GW under construction. This trajectory puts total capacity on track to increase by 23% by 2030, posing challenges to achieving emission reduction targets.
“It is entirely possible for emissions to fall while capacity increases, but the buildup of new coal power plants makes emissions peaking economically and politically more challenging to implement,” the report states.
