A study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) reveals that India's residential rooftop solar potential could reach 32GW with the support of subsidies from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE). The research, titled “Mapping India's Residential Rooftop Solar Potential,” underscores the economic viability of rooftop solar, estimating a total economic potential of 118GW under the condition of restricting rooftop solar size to meet households' electricity demand.
However, the study notes that based on consumer willingness to pay and a five-year payback period, the market potential in residential solar decreases to about 11GW without capital subsidies. Most residential consumers have relatively low electricity consumption, making solar economically challenging without financial support, despite its technical feasibility.
CEEW emphasizes that the market potential could expand to 32GW with MNRE's capital subsidy, which was announced in 2022 at INR14,558 (US$175.12) per kW for the 1-3kW rooftop solar category under the MNRE Phase II Rooftop Solar scheme. Extending the payback period to eight years could further increase residential rooftop solar potential to 68GW, allowing more households to recover the investment cost over a longer timeframe.
Currently, India has 11GW of rooftop solar capacity, including both commercial and residential installations, with only 2.7GW in the residential sector. CEEW CEO Arunabha Ghosh emphasizes the need for the solar energy revolution to extend to households, calling for the right pricing, attractive incentives, and a convenient experience for residents.
To boost the adoption of residential rooftop solar, CEEW suggests the introduction of targeted capital subsidies, especially for systems of size 0-3 kW, and the recognition of rooftop solar systems below 1kW in policies and regulations. The study highlights the significant potential of this category in residential rooftop solar.
In terms of willingness to install rooftop solar systems, residents in Gujarat exhibit the highest interest at 13%, surpassing the national average of 5%. Despite this, concerns about the perceived high cost of rooftop solar systems impact residents' willingness to pay across states.
The global trend towards increased rooftop solar installations is reflected in the study, aligning with reports that rooftop installations accounted for 49.5% (118GW) of new capacity in 2022. SolarPower Europe predicts the worldwide rooftop sector to reach 268GW by 2027, exceeding the total solar market size in 2022.
